I didn't listen to yesterday's testimony by Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh live, but one of the few advantages of today's perpetual stream of news is that it's very easy to stay up-to-date on things without following them exactly as they happen. I've listened to the highlights of it, listened to analysis on the radio and podcast about it, and read around ten articles on it.
My conclusion: Dr. Ford is telling the truth. She was assaulted by Kavanaugh when they were both teenagers. He doesn't remember it because he was very drunk when it happened and also, possibly, because, at the time, he perceive his actions as memorable -- they didn't amount to anything more than fooling around or "boys being boys" -- certainly in his mind they did not constitute sexual assault. I think he thinks he's telling the truth in his adamant denials.
Where Kavanaugh's defense utterly falls apart, however, is around the parameter. He is either lying or psychotically in denial about his drinking habits, the company he kept, and his attitudes toward sex and women as a teenager and a young adult. He also mounted a contradictory defense by claiming that: a) Dr. Ford is credible; b) this is all a leftist conspiracy to smear his name. If a) is true, then investigations and hearings are warranted, and there is no basis for b). Basically, what Kavanaugh is saying is -- I think allegations of sexual assault should be taken seriously, unless they are against me.
I also think it is very telling that he evaded all questions concerning an FBI investigation. If he wants so badly for his name to be cleared, then ask for an investigation to clear it! It's obvious that he doesn't want one, and it's obvious why. It's not because the FBI will find proof of the assault or even of the party at which it allegedly happened. It was over 35 years ago; all physical evidence is likely to have been erased by time; and it's very likely nobody but Ford remembers it. (Why would they?) The reason Kavanaugh doesn't want an FBI investigation is because he's painted himself into a corner by significantly playing down his past boorishness. An honest investigation will not definitively expose him as an assaulter, but it will definitively expose him as being less that truthful, and it will destroy this pristine image -- all-American good guy, hard worker, occasionally beer drinker, sure, but all in good fun -- he's tried to cultivate of himself as a young man.
But anybody who lived through high school can see through his dishonesty immediately. He's is not being truthful about his yearbook. His references to the "Renate Alumni" do not have to do with an innocent kiss. They are clearly a reference to a girl he and his group of friends used to brag/joke about doing sexual things with. This is the type of thing dumb-ass high school boys (i.e., high school boys) would write code messages about in a yearbook -- not some little smooch. And Kavanaugh's insistence that "boof" means fart and "devil's triangle" is a drinking game are even more absurd. These are (or at least were) well-known terms for anal sex and two-guy-one-girl sex, respectively. Again, this is the type of thing high school boys joke about. No high school boy would use a term meaning anal sex in a wink-wink message in a yearbook earnestly thinking it was about flatulence. That's one of the least believable things I've ever heard. It's so unbelievable that even the Republicans I know who support Kavanaugh would admit that it's not true.
Then we get to his drinking. I think the term "blackout drunk," which came up several times in the hearing, is a problematic one. I think of blackout drunk as having no memory of the night before. I've been drunk many times in my life and only once was I blackout drunk, by this definition. "Memory-impaired" is a better term. I've been memory-impaired -- not remembered little parts of a night or they were so hazy I effectively don't remember them -- many times. Again, there is absolutely no way Kavanaugh has never been memory-impaired from drinking, given what we've heard from people who used to party with him. An investigation would make this clear immediately. His old buddy Mark Judge -- who literally wrote a book called Wasted: Tales of a Gen-X Drunk (in which Kavanaugh is obviously referenced under the quasi-pseudonym "Bart O'Kavanaugh") -- would make this clear immediately. And also that's why we didn't hear from Judge yesterday, despite the fact that he was allegedly in the room when Kavanaugh assaulted Ford.
There was another path for Kavanaugh -- a more honest one in which he owns up to the gross references in his yearbook and his prior hard-drinking and classifies them as something many teenagers/early twentysomethings do (which is true!) and they don't give an accurate picture of him as a fully formed adult. But he didn't take it. He took the Trump track, which is to become indignant and deny everything, and claim "The Left" is out to destroy you, even when the facts suggest otherwise. (Curiously, The Left took down Al Franken and let Neil Gorsuch be. It's almost as if they only go after people who have been credibly accused of sexual misconduct.) And it will probably work. The only people Kavanaugh needs to convince to be seated as a Supreme Court justice are Republicans, and the Republicans are currently a party in large part comprised of aggrieved white men, and they want on the court somebody like them, who will unabashedly fight for them. Kavanaugh showed yesterday he fits this description to a tee.
I predict he will be voted in early next week along party lines. The only possible Republican holdouts -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- will come around. They sometimes claim to stand up for women's rights, but I predict partisanship will overcome any such sentiment in the end. It will be a sad day for the Supreme Court, a sad for women, especially victims of sexual assault, and a sad day for our country in general. But don't despair. Vote.
Until next time...
My conclusion: Dr. Ford is telling the truth. She was assaulted by Kavanaugh when they were both teenagers. He doesn't remember it because he was very drunk when it happened and also, possibly, because, at the time, he perceive his actions as memorable -- they didn't amount to anything more than fooling around or "boys being boys" -- certainly in his mind they did not constitute sexual assault. I think he thinks he's telling the truth in his adamant denials.
Where Kavanaugh's defense utterly falls apart, however, is around the parameter. He is either lying or psychotically in denial about his drinking habits, the company he kept, and his attitudes toward sex and women as a teenager and a young adult. He also mounted a contradictory defense by claiming that: a) Dr. Ford is credible; b) this is all a leftist conspiracy to smear his name. If a) is true, then investigations and hearings are warranted, and there is no basis for b). Basically, what Kavanaugh is saying is -- I think allegations of sexual assault should be taken seriously, unless they are against me.
I also think it is very telling that he evaded all questions concerning an FBI investigation. If he wants so badly for his name to be cleared, then ask for an investigation to clear it! It's obvious that he doesn't want one, and it's obvious why. It's not because the FBI will find proof of the assault or even of the party at which it allegedly happened. It was over 35 years ago; all physical evidence is likely to have been erased by time; and it's very likely nobody but Ford remembers it. (Why would they?) The reason Kavanaugh doesn't want an FBI investigation is because he's painted himself into a corner by significantly playing down his past boorishness. An honest investigation will not definitively expose him as an assaulter, but it will definitively expose him as being less that truthful, and it will destroy this pristine image -- all-American good guy, hard worker, occasionally beer drinker, sure, but all in good fun -- he's tried to cultivate of himself as a young man.
But anybody who lived through high school can see through his dishonesty immediately. He's is not being truthful about his yearbook. His references to the "Renate Alumni" do not have to do with an innocent kiss. They are clearly a reference to a girl he and his group of friends used to brag/joke about doing sexual things with. This is the type of thing dumb-ass high school boys (i.e., high school boys) would write code messages about in a yearbook -- not some little smooch. And Kavanaugh's insistence that "boof" means fart and "devil's triangle" is a drinking game are even more absurd. These are (or at least were) well-known terms for anal sex and two-guy-one-girl sex, respectively. Again, this is the type of thing high school boys joke about. No high school boy would use a term meaning anal sex in a wink-wink message in a yearbook earnestly thinking it was about flatulence. That's one of the least believable things I've ever heard. It's so unbelievable that even the Republicans I know who support Kavanaugh would admit that it's not true.
Then we get to his drinking. I think the term "blackout drunk," which came up several times in the hearing, is a problematic one. I think of blackout drunk as having no memory of the night before. I've been drunk many times in my life and only once was I blackout drunk, by this definition. "Memory-impaired" is a better term. I've been memory-impaired -- not remembered little parts of a night or they were so hazy I effectively don't remember them -- many times. Again, there is absolutely no way Kavanaugh has never been memory-impaired from drinking, given what we've heard from people who used to party with him. An investigation would make this clear immediately. His old buddy Mark Judge -- who literally wrote a book called Wasted: Tales of a Gen-X Drunk (in which Kavanaugh is obviously referenced under the quasi-pseudonym "Bart O'Kavanaugh") -- would make this clear immediately. And also that's why we didn't hear from Judge yesterday, despite the fact that he was allegedly in the room when Kavanaugh assaulted Ford.
There was another path for Kavanaugh -- a more honest one in which he owns up to the gross references in his yearbook and his prior hard-drinking and classifies them as something many teenagers/early twentysomethings do (which is true!) and they don't give an accurate picture of him as a fully formed adult. But he didn't take it. He took the Trump track, which is to become indignant and deny everything, and claim "The Left" is out to destroy you, even when the facts suggest otherwise. (Curiously, The Left took down Al Franken and let Neil Gorsuch be. It's almost as if they only go after people who have been credibly accused of sexual misconduct.) And it will probably work. The only people Kavanaugh needs to convince to be seated as a Supreme Court justice are Republicans, and the Republicans are currently a party in large part comprised of aggrieved white men, and they want on the court somebody like them, who will unabashedly fight for them. Kavanaugh showed yesterday he fits this description to a tee.
I predict he will be voted in early next week along party lines. The only possible Republican holdouts -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- will come around. They sometimes claim to stand up for women's rights, but I predict partisanship will overcome any such sentiment in the end. It will be a sad day for the Supreme Court, a sad for women, especially victims of sexual assault, and a sad day for our country in general. But don't despair. Vote.
Until next time...
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