Saturday, October 12, 2013

Entry 203: Strategy

So the government shutdown and the debt ceiling brinksmanship roll on.  It looked like a deal might be brokered last night, but it didn't happen.  Obama seems to be quite serious about his requirement of a "clean bill" before he engages in good faith* spending negotiations, and the Republicans seem quite serious about their requirement of getting something -- anything at all -- that doesn't make it look like they "lost" (even if they don't know what that is).  These two positions seem to be mutually exclusive, so ... here we are.


There's really nothing to like about the situation, but if you had to find a silver lining, it would be watching the Republicans completely bungle things over and over again.  What this whole foofaraw really hammers home is the unmitigated, collective delusion of the GOP (especially the Tea Party wing) -- the "Republican Bubble" as Bill Maher calls it -- an insulated little pocket that neither fact nor logic can penetrate.  The reason this is so obvious now is because the Reps' delusion is largely hurting themselves.  That's when you know it's legit.  By contrast, last year, for instance, when the GOP ignored reality (and basic statistics) and insisted that Mitt Romney was going to win the election, they weren't hurting themselves all that much, other than just looking stupid, which obviously they aren't too bothered by***.  This time it's been a different story.  They're getting the bulk of the blame.

And let's look at why they're getting most the blame, and what a masterful job they've done bungling everything.

For starters, they completely misjudged Obama's resoluteness on not allowing them to use a government shutdown or the debt ceiling as leverage in negotiations.  They thought he'd cave for some reason, and then they had no contingency plan for a graceful exit when he didn't.  This was especially absurd at the beginning when their demands were the defunding of Obamacare.  Could anything possibly be more delusional than thinking the POTUS is going to agree -- under any circumstances -- to wipe away his only signature piece of legislation, especially one that's been legitimize by all three branches of government?  (Well, maybe thinking the End Times are upon us, but that's more flat out nuts than it is delusional.)


And, by the way, herein lies the sweetest bit of, I'll say, irony, for lack of a better word.  The initial roll out of Obamacare has been the figurative train wreck its opponents said it would be.  The complexity of linking to all the various agencies that are needed to confirm all the appropriate qualifications has made the online exchanges incredibly glitchy, causing many people to not be able to use them.  This should be an incredibly embarrassing time for the White House. If the Reps had a modicum -- just the tiniest iota -- of realism in them, they would have known trying to defund Obamacare was a fruitless endeavor, and they could've used its calamitous beginning to their advantage in a major way.  Instead Obamacare's failings have been a relatively minor story, completely overshadowed by the Reps' decisions to shutter the government and get everybody in a lather over the debt ceiling.  Strategically they couldn't have given the Democrats a bigger PR gift.

Which brings me to my next example of delusion.  No matter what the polls say**, no matter how many elections they lose, no matter by how many votes, the Republicans always think they're the true voice of the American people.  Any notion to the contrary is deemed illegitimate in some way.  It's funny, isn't it, that a group who ostensibly prides itself on being the party of personal responsibility blames everybody else for its (and the nation's) failings -- the liberal media, moochers, immigrants, academics, gays, minorities, young people, single moms, Hollywood -- instead of pointing the finger where it really belongs.  The Reps would be wise to heed the message of a creepy dead pop singer.



But they won't.  And so their retreaded ideological war will continue -- a war they can't admit they're losing and that unfortunately we all get to be pawns in.  Maybe it will hurt them in the midterms next year, maybe it won't.  In the long run it probably hurts their brand, but that's the problem with the long run -- it's the long run.   I'd prefer things get settled by Thursday.

Until next time...

 *I love that this term always gets slapped in there when talking about negotiations, as if it actually means anything.  "I'll agree to negotiate, but only in normal faith."

**The "boomerang effect" discussed in the linked story is very applicable to me.  As anybody who has known me for at least the last six years knows, I was not an Obama fan in the early going.  Now, I'm a supporter, completely by contrast.  The craziness of the GOP has made me an Obama supporter.  This is another amazing gift the Reps have given the Dems.  Just look at Obamacare: the Reps somehow managed to turn a very conservative, free-market, for-profit healthcare system into a coalescing of liberal cause.

***One subtle thing I find hilarious about this clip is that, ignoring his "legitimate rape" comments, his position on abortion in rape cases is to punish the rapist.  How controversial!  And here all this time I thought the solution to the whole rape/abortion quagmire was to let rapists proceed with impunity.  Thanks Todd, for finding such a great and relevant solution.

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