Entry 534: In The Meantime

We are now less than a week away from election day.  Although, that's not really an accurate term anymore, being that the election has already been going on for weeks, and the nobody will actually be elected that day.  We are now less than a week away from the last and largest day of in-person voting.  For some states this is also, unfortunately, the last day a ballot can officially be received.  I probably don't have many readers in Wisconsin, but if I do, and you haven't yet voted, please do so, for Biden/Harris, in person or via an official drop box.  Don't rely on the postal service to get your ballot there by Tuesday.  Wisconsin doesn't have a posted-marked-by grace period for late ballots.  Six days is probably enough time, but why risk it?  That should be everybody's attitude in general.  Why risk it?  Even if your state has the most liberal laws in the union, let's not rely on the mail at this point.*  You have plenty of time to hit up a drop box (make sure it's legit and everything is in order), or, even better, to get your booty to the polls.  Wear a mask, bring a snack, check the website to find out when lines are reasonable, if you can.  Just vote -- for Biden and Harris.

*I voted by mail several weeks ago, which gives plenty of time for my ballot to be received.  I'm sure it already has been.  Also, I vote in DC where the presidential stakes couldn't be lower.  If I lived in a purple state, I likely would've done in-person early voting.  That's what I've done before.

A lot of people are already doing this and early voting returns and the latest polls look really good for the Democratic ticket... which comforts us supporters exactly 0%.  Nobody thinks this is in the bag; nobody even feels remotely good about it.  We should hope it's all true and act as if it isn't.

To that end, if you want to help, it's not too late.  You can volunteer to help get out the vote in swing states (phone banking and the like), or you can donate money to help pay other people to do so.  I don't know how much stuff like this actually helps at this point, but it can't hurt, and if the election is anything like 2016, fractions of percentages could decide the difference.  If your money helps add one new Biden voter for every 200 people that actually could matter.  You can make a blanket donation to something like ActBlue or you can target an individual state.  I just gave something (through ActBlue) specifically to help GOTV for Biden in Pennsylvania, because that's the closest state that Biden (almost) certainly needs to win.  But Michigan is a good one too.  So is Wisconsin and Arizona and Florida and a few others.

Here's my breakdown of most important swing states: 

Tier 1 (critical): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin
Tier 2 (very-winnable backups): Arizona, North Carolina
Tier 3 (could-win luxuries): Florida, Georgia, Iowa
Tier 4 (close, but probably not): Ohio
Tier 5 (the holy grail): Texas

There are also some important Senate races out there, particularly Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia (x2), and Maine.  If the Democratic candidate can take the seat in five of these seven races, very doable, then they would likely control the Senate.  That would be good.

Well, we shall see.  In the meantime, consider making a donation.  It's easy -- just Google and click.

Until next time...

Entry 533: Mouse In The House

Well, the debates are over.  They ended relatively uneventfully, which I think is a good thing.  Biden is polling very well, and the less time there is for the other shoe to drop, the better.  The final debate was last night.  I watched most of it (I missed the first 15 minutes or so, see below, and flipped to Thursday Night Football intermittently, which was a good idea, if only for this play) and felt it was pretty much a stalemate.  Trump was much more subdued and came off as less insane than usual, which I'm sure was a conscious decision, but the problem for him is that I think he's actual less effective in a "normal" debate because he has nothing of substance to say.  He might have been better off ranting and raving and trying to turn it into one of his rallies, rather than have voters completely forget what he said three days from now.  It's like when you're way behind in football and have to start throwing risky passes downfield.  Chances are they will be intercepted, and you will lose by even more points, but it's better than just running out the clock.

Maybe he did kinda try to go long with all this Hunter Biden stuff, but few people outside of his little cult seem to believe it or care.  That strategy worked in 2016, in part because he was running against a Clinton and all the baggage that brings, but it's a different opponent this time.  Similarly, he repeatedly tried to paint Biden as a radical socialist lefty, which is a totally anemic line of attack.  Nobody believes that.  Biden easily parried away such declarations, by pointing out that he beat a field of Democratic challengers running to his left.  I must admit, however, I did get a little worried about Biden's comments on the oil industry.  But he later walked those comments back a bit.  Plus, he's not wrong.  I think most voters either agree with him -- many want him to come out much more strongly against fossil fuels -- or, at the very least, they already know that transition away from oil is a pretty mainstream Democratic position, so it's likely not the big gotcha Trump tried to play it out to be.

One area where I thought Biden didn't do as well as I would have liked is in defending his record.  Trump kept goading him for not getting anything done while he was in office, and Biden just kinda took it, and only once mentioned that there was a Republican held congress.  I wish he would've thrown this back in Trump's face by a) rattling off the Obama administration's accomplishments (Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, Dreamer Act, stimulus, etc.); b) reiterating the obstinacy they faced from a Mitch McConnell, John Boehner Congress (and taking the opportunity to remind everybody that it's important for Dems to retake the Senate as well); c) pointing out that that was in the past and Trump is the president now and he's done absolutely nothing.  He never really did that.  Biden never explicitly said how absurd it is that Trump, the actual president today, is running as if he's the challenger and the actual challenger, who was vice president four years ago, is the one in charge of things.  But maybe he doesn't need to say this explicitly.  The voters probably get it without it being said.  Let's hope.

My favorite part of the debate was when Biden referenced the "Poor Boys," and then completely butchered Trump's infamous "stand down and stand by" quote.  That was an old guy moment right there.  But I'm glad he got the name wrong.  Those bozos have gotten enough free press as it is.

Anyway...

[Did you know?  Beverly Cleary is still alive and she's 104 years old!]

I missed the first part of the debate because I was capturing a mouse that somehow got into our house.  We actually got lucky I noticed it when I did, because it just happened to go into our basement bathroom where I could easily seal off it's escape routes.  I don't know if you've ever tried to catch a mouse in an open area before, but it's damn near impossible.  They are so fast and can fit through the smallest cracks and crevices.  I had one in an apartment once, and it took my roommate and me hours to capture it, and the only reason we were successful at all was because we had one of those glue traps and were able to set it along one of its escape routes, and it eventually went into it and got stuck.  Then we had a mouse in a glue trap that we didn't know what to do with, so I put it in a plastic bag, slammed it against the side of our dumpster a bunch of times to put it out of its misery and threw it out.  Sorry, Ralph.

This time the mouse survived.  I trapped it in a Tupperware container on the ground and was somehow able to slide a thin plastic cutting board under the Tupperware to contain it.  I was very proud of myself, because if you give it any space at all it'll squeeze through and run away.  Then I flipped the Tupperware over, holding the cutting board on the top super tightly, and ran out of the house barefooted, down the street to a little wooded area, and released it.  Done and done.  Lil' S1 was my "helper" in this endeavor, by which I mean he opened the door and watched me do it.  (He was also listening to me try to catch it in the bathroom, and at one point it ran across my foot, and I did one those surprised/creeped out "yeeee"s, and he laughed and said, "You're scared of a little mouse, Dad!")  S just kinda stood there freaking out (to be fair, the cutting board was her idea).  She hates, well, pretty much all invasive critters, but especially mice and cockroaches.  She was on the phone with pest control first thing this morning.

Alright, gotta go cook some turkey burgers for dinner.  It might be the last time to grill this year.

Until next time...

Entry 532: Five Thousand Words

I don't feel much like writing tonight -- no real reason, just being lazy -- so I'm going to post some pics and call it a night.

My boys embracing while waiting for a science presentation to start.  It was one of Lil' S2's friend's birthday party.  His dad told me Lil' S1 could come too "if he doesn't mind hanging out with the little kids."  He most definitely does not.  He's so funny that way.  He'll hang out/talk with anybody who will tolerate him.  I'm really glad I got this pic.  It's rare to see them showing affection toward one another.

Here's one of my boys and some friends at a farm outing on Sunday.  I didn't really want to go, but I knew I'd look like the bad dad if I didn't.  Plus, the Seahawks were playing the lowly Dolphins, and I knew the game wouldn't be on TV here.  On a football podcast I listen to, whenever there is a boring slate of games the hosts' go-to line is "it's a good weekend to go pumpkin picking with the family."  I actually did that.

Because of my shoulder tendinitis, I haven't been able to do any strenuous exercise, so I've been walking around my neighborhood a lot.  The Black Lives Matter sign is a common sight.  Also, every Friday night a synagogue up the street has a BLM demonstration, where they line the sidewalks in front of their building holding signs and people honk in support as they drive by.  Tonight we walked by them on our way home from the park.  Lil' S1 was on his bike a bit ahead of Lil' S2 and me, and when we caught up to him, he was just chatting away with this old man demonstrating.  The guy seemed very amused.  It was cute.

If it was only up to my neighbors, I estimate, based on yard signs, Biden would win with 100% of the vote.  There might be a Trump voter somewhere in the vicinity, but they're not advertising it.

Until next time...

Entry 531: Tendinitis of the Soul (and the Shoulder)

So the president has Covid now.  I don’t wish ill on anybody… but I don’t know how to finish that sentence.  He will likely have mild symptoms, because he has access to top-notch healthcare, and most people have mild symptoms, regardless (one of the confounding things about this virus is that it kills some people and hardly affects others), and then once he gets better I'm sure we will hear a stream of logorrhea about how he overcame the Chinese Virus, and it’s actually not that big a deal, and the fake media… blah, blah, blah.

But it’s not a good look for him, anyway you slice it.  It underscores his recklessness and keeps Covid, a bad issue for him, in the news.  I doubt it’s going to swing the polls much, because, at this point, I don’t think there is really anything that can swing the polls much, but hopefully it’s another drop in Biden’s bucket, a fraction of a percent of win-probabilty added to his side of the ledger. The debate, for all it’s awfulness (and it was awful; I watched the entire thing after telling myself I wouldn’t turn it on at all), probably played a similar role.  And with the election only a month away, and millions of ballots already cast, the situation is pretty clear: If the polls are anywhere close to being accurate, and if there are no voter suppression shenanigans (two big ifs), Biden will win handily.  If you are thinking, “But everybody said the same thing about Hillary in 2016!” you’re not totally wrong, but you’re not totally right, either.  There are some key differences between the two races (FiveThirtyEight has been doing solid work on this, as always), but I get the consternation.  I feel it myself.  It’s not irrational.  Nothing is 100%.  Long shots sometimes cash in.

In other news, something is wrong with my right shoulder, probably a bad case of tendinitis.  I’ve had it for years; like, I remember first feeling it at an exercise class I took maybe six or seven years ago, and according to my records (i.e., this very blog), I was rehabbing it in physical therapy in 2016.  Obviously, the PT didn’t totally take.  I can’t even remember if it got better at all.  I quit after a handful of sessions because the woman I was working with moved away, but I imagine I would have continued if I was happy with the results.  But it just won't go away.  The discomfort is always there, and I've learned to navigate around it.  Sometimes it flares up and causes me pain; sometimes it’s just a little annoyance; most of the time it’s somewhere in between.

A couple weeks ago, it was irritating me enough that I broke down and went to the doctor again.  I wanted to go straight to a specialist, but I needed a referral, so I saw a GP at my neighborhood clinic first.  She told me it's probably tendinitis, and then I saw the specialist who also told me it’s probably tendinitis.  Neither one thinks there is structural damage, because the injury doesn’t seem to affect my strength (which might be part of the problem; I’m not forced to rest it).  Currently, I’m taking an anti-inflammatory (basically extra strong ibuprofen), and, once again, doing PT.  I’m not optimistic that it will work, but I’m willing to try.

I have a follow-up appointment with the specialist in two weeks.  I think we will try a cortisone injection then.  If that doesn’t take, then I’ll get an MRI to try to find out if something else is up.  That’s probably what I really need, but it’s an expensive procedure, and I have to try everything else first to get insurance to cover it, and even then I expect the copay to be hefty.  So, I don’t mind putting it off a bit.  I’m already dipping into my HSA to cover the PT copay: $70 a pop for 45-minutes sessions!

Okay, enough about health woes. 

We had a little incident this week with my elderly next-door neighbors, and by “incident” I mean my kids and their friend were throwing stones at the side of their house and broke their glass door.  We were working from home at the time, and the sitter* told us the neighbors came over and said they heard a crash and saw the door was broken.  So, I went outside to check things out, and it was like that scene in The Simpsons where Homer steals Flanders air conditioner.

The broken door only faces our yard, and there were a bunch of stones lying around it that perfectly match the kind used to pave our walkway that the kids are constantly digging up.

*Remember how I told you our sitter wasn't very attentive?  Yet another example.  If the kids are taking a break from school and playing in the yard, I don't expect her to literally be watching them everywhere they go, but, my goodness, she should know if they're throwing rocks at our neighbor's house, or anywhere, really.  I can't wait to be done with her.  It's super hard to find babysitters right now.  A couple we know just had there's up and quit and them, totally leaving them in the lurch.  That's the only reason we're keep ours.  I mean, she's really nice, but she's just not good at the job.    

I brought all the kids outside and asked them what went on, and they all claimed ignorance.  I was 95% sure at least one of them was lying, but nobody actually saw them do it, and they repeatedly denied it, so what could I do?  I told them to go back inside, and then we (S also came out by this point) told my neighbors we would pay to get their door fixed and clean it up for them, but they waved us away, and said “don’t fret over it.”

Later that night, I decided to work on the younger one a little bit more.  Initially, he again repeatedly denied having anything to do with it, but then he slipped up and gave me a little opening, saying maybe his brother did in on accident, because he was trying to throw a rock on the roof.  I thought he actually did it and was trying to blame it on somebody else (he plays with those rocks the most), but his brother overheard us talking and finally confessed to it.  That’s the thing about little kids, they eventually crack.  Probably they even want to tell the truth, but they’re too scared to do so.  Honestly, I was pretty surprised they all lied, somewhat convincingly, for as long as they did.  (S called their friend’s mom, and apparently it took even longer for her daughter to come clean.)  Lil’ S1 actually broke the window, but they were all throwing rocks, which might explain why nobody threw him under the bus immediately.

I was pretty hot, but I played it cool.  I didn’t think raging and screaming would do any good.  Plus, to get them to fess up, I told them they wouldn’t get in trouble if they told the truth.  So, they didn’t get “punished.”  But they did have to go over to our neighbors and admit their wrongdoings and apologize face-to-face (properly masked, of course).  As a little kid, that was so much worse for me than going without TV or whatnot.  Also, we made each of them hand write apology notes, which we are going to take over to our neighbors this weekend.  In part, this is also an excuse for us to check up on them and ask again if there is anything we can do.  (They’ve insisted there isn’t and been pretty cool about the whole thing so far.)  I feel bad, because they’re really old, and just the act of going out to purchase a new door, which I saw them doing, looks like an ordeal.  They do have an adult son who lives with them, but I’m not sure what's up with him.  I think he has issues.  Whatever the case, he doesn't seem to help his parents much.  

Well, I think that's enough for now.

Until next time…