I thought this was going to be the week that everybody got better -- that I wouldn't have to write yet another entry about how everybody is sick. Instead, things totally went the other way. Lil' S1 doubled down on the sickness last weekend, running a fever so high we nearly took him to the emergency room. But a little Children's Motrin cooled him off, and it cooled off S too, as she was growing quite concerned. (I, for my part, was steely, because that's pretty much how I always am, for better or worse.) We kept him home from school on Monday, and then I made a last second call to keep him home on Tuesday too. We were all dressed and ready to go when I looked over to see him laying on the couch with his jacket, shoes, and backpack on, saying, "Daddy, I'm sleepy. I wanna take a nap." I told him OK and sent him upstairs where he slept nearly the entire day. So it was obviously the right move to keep him home. We finally sent him back to school on Thursday, but even then his teacher said he had almost no energy. He's at school right now, and I told his teacher to text me if he needed to come home, and I haven't heard anything yet, so... fingers crossed.
Oh, also, S is gone for the weekend, and Lil' S2 is recovering from croup. Lucky me! The saving grace is that S's parents are in town, and her mom helps out tremendously with the little little man. She's basically a 24/7 nanny who also cooks every meal. That part is great. S's dad on the other hand... Well, he doesn't really help at all. I try not to get annoyed with him -- he's old, he has two bad shoulders, and he doesn't know how to handle Lil' S1 -- but sometimes it's like, dude, can you please offer to do something, anything, with this kid to give me a break? Read him book, draw with him, play with his Dinotrux, just distract him for 15 minutes so that I can send this work email or eat my dinner in relative peace. (Although, I should be careful what I wish for. The other morning he got Lil' S1 some milk, but didn't put the lid on right, so Lil' S1 just dumped it all into his lap. So not only did I have to get out of bed, but I had to tend to a sopping wet kid.)
Now, don't get me wrong. I don't want to sound ungrateful. I'm just venting. S's dad has been so unselfish with us -- with me -- over the years. He literally gave us his car -- two of them, actually. And every time we visit he always makes sure I have a prime spot to sleep and I have everything I need. In fact, pretty much anytime we need anything at all, he will provide it or helps us obtain it if he can. He's a very good and generous man. He's just not great with needy toddlers is all.
-----------------------
Okay, to switch gears completely, I'm going to give you a few political predictions.
Prediction no. 1: Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
Too obvious, you say? Not if you read the posts of the Bernie Sanders supporters on my FaceBook feed. My goodness they are delusional. It reminds me very much of four years ago when Republicans insisted that all the polls had a liberal bias and Mitt Romney was actually the favorite in the general election. With Bernie Bros, they obviously don't claim a liberal bias, instead they claim a "corporate" bias. The corporate media is lying to us all and downplaying Bernie's chances in order to prop up their preferred choice, the "establishment" candidate Hillary Clinton. Here's an example of what somebody posted:
Okay, let's break this down. According to this graphic, a candidate must get 2,173 delegates to reach a majority. Given that Sanders currently has 818, he needs 1,355 of the 2,394 remaining. Since Democrats award delegates more or less proportional to the percentage of the vote, this means Sanders needs to claim 57% of the vote moving forward. He's reached this percentage just seven times in the previous 24 contests, and now he has to average it over the remaining 26 to win. Currently he's at just under 42% of the vote (again according to this chart). So, not only does Sanders need to beat Clinton in the remaining states, he needs to crush her. He needs to up his share of the vote by 15% -- a whopping total given that half the country has already given us a good idea of how we are leaning. A swing this large would be extremely difficult to pull off even if Sanders was beating Clinton in the polls in the remaining primaries. But -- spoiler alert! -- he isn't. He's projected to lose handily in Arizona and also lose in Utah. So not only do the polls have to be off for Sanders to gain any real ground, they have to be way off. Yes, I know, Michigan and all that, but Michigan was an historical anomaly. Thinking every poll will be off in Sanders' favor at a Michigan-type level is like thinking global warming is a hoax because we once had a cold day in July.
The thing that Sanders supporters are having a very hard time accepting is that more Democrats genuinely prefer Clinton. It's not corporations, it's not Wall Street, it's not the party elites, it's the people -- rank-and-file voters. They like Clinton better, plain and simple, fair and square. It's democracy in action, and the people are democratically choosing Hillary. The media isn't lying to anybody about this (if anything, they are being too generous to Sanders because they don't want the horse race to end this early). In fact, the people who are being dishonest are the people who made the above graphic without giving any accompanying analysis.
Look, Sanders could still be the nominee (betting markets have him around 6%). Hillary could get charged with a felony, she could have a stroke, she could have a religious epiphany and endorse Ted Cruz. There are countless things that could happen that allow Sanders to win. But barring one of these wild, unforeseen game-changers, he is going to lose to Hillary. His supporters don't have to like it, but it would be nice if they weren't in mindless denial about it.
Prediction no. 2: Trump Does Not Secure a Majority of the Delegates, the Republican Nomination is Decided by a Brokered Convention and the Candidate Is... Donald J. Trump!
There is a decent chance Trump wins the nomination outright, but there is an equally decent chance he doesn't. It's about a coin flip. If he doesn't get a majority of the delegates, and neither does any other candidate (and nobody else is close right now), then chaos will ensue, and the Republicans will have to somehow pick somebody at their convention in July. Although several names have been bandied about -- Ted Cruz and John Kasich, obviously, but also Paul Ryan -- I bet, if it comes down to it, they will pick Trump anyway. Why? They aren't actually willing to go all in against him. The #nevertrump movement is a total bluff, and Trump knows this, and he has repeatedly called it.
If Republicans really wanted to spot Trump, they could, easily. All they have to do is announce that under no circumstances will they vote for Trump in the general election. They could even run a third-party, write-in candidate against him: Paul Ryan on the True Conservative ticket or something like that. This would absolutely stop Trump. It would also gift wrap the election for Hillary, but it would stop Trump. And for as much as Republicans like to talk about purity and integrity and honor, they would rather stand behind a crass, xenophobic, racist liar than have four more years of *shudder* a Democrat (with a few exceptions). The Republicans want Trump to go away, but they don't want him to take his supporters with him. Trump knows this and is like, hahaha... fuck you guys.
I mean, here's how I think it would go down at a brokered convention.
Republican Elite: I say we nominate John Kasich.
Trump: That would be a 'uge mistake. If you do that, I'm going to tell my minions not to vote for him. In fact, I might even run as an independent. I'll be the best independent candidate God ever created.
Republican Elite: Fine, let's nominate Donald Trump instead.
Ted Cruz [out of the side of his mouth]: I say we nominate Ted Cruz.
Trump: Shut up, Lying Ted! Nobody likes you, anyway!
That sounds about right, doesn't it?
Alright, until next time...
Oh, also, S is gone for the weekend, and Lil' S2 is recovering from croup. Lucky me! The saving grace is that S's parents are in town, and her mom helps out tremendously with the little little man. She's basically a 24/7 nanny who also cooks every meal. That part is great. S's dad on the other hand... Well, he doesn't really help at all. I try not to get annoyed with him -- he's old, he has two bad shoulders, and he doesn't know how to handle Lil' S1 -- but sometimes it's like, dude, can you please offer to do something, anything, with this kid to give me a break? Read him book, draw with him, play with his Dinotrux, just distract him for 15 minutes so that I can send this work email or eat my dinner in relative peace. (Although, I should be careful what I wish for. The other morning he got Lil' S1 some milk, but didn't put the lid on right, so Lil' S1 just dumped it all into his lap. So not only did I have to get out of bed, but I had to tend to a sopping wet kid.)
Now, don't get me wrong. I don't want to sound ungrateful. I'm just venting. S's dad has been so unselfish with us -- with me -- over the years. He literally gave us his car -- two of them, actually. And every time we visit he always makes sure I have a prime spot to sleep and I have everything I need. In fact, pretty much anytime we need anything at all, he will provide it or helps us obtain it if he can. He's a very good and generous man. He's just not great with needy toddlers is all.
-----------------------
Okay, to switch gears completely, I'm going to give you a few political predictions.
Prediction no. 1: Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
Too obvious, you say? Not if you read the posts of the Bernie Sanders supporters on my FaceBook feed. My goodness they are delusional. It reminds me very much of four years ago when Republicans insisted that all the polls had a liberal bias and Mitt Romney was actually the favorite in the general election. With Bernie Bros, they obviously don't claim a liberal bias, instead they claim a "corporate" bias. The corporate media is lying to us all and downplaying Bernie's chances in order to prop up their preferred choice, the "establishment" candidate Hillary Clinton. Here's an example of what somebody posted:
Okay, let's break this down. According to this graphic, a candidate must get 2,173 delegates to reach a majority. Given that Sanders currently has 818, he needs 1,355 of the 2,394 remaining. Since Democrats award delegates more or less proportional to the percentage of the vote, this means Sanders needs to claim 57% of the vote moving forward. He's reached this percentage just seven times in the previous 24 contests, and now he has to average it over the remaining 26 to win. Currently he's at just under 42% of the vote (again according to this chart). So, not only does Sanders need to beat Clinton in the remaining states, he needs to crush her. He needs to up his share of the vote by 15% -- a whopping total given that half the country has already given us a good idea of how we are leaning. A swing this large would be extremely difficult to pull off even if Sanders was beating Clinton in the polls in the remaining primaries. But -- spoiler alert! -- he isn't. He's projected to lose handily in Arizona and also lose in Utah. So not only do the polls have to be off for Sanders to gain any real ground, they have to be way off. Yes, I know, Michigan and all that, but Michigan was an historical anomaly. Thinking every poll will be off in Sanders' favor at a Michigan-type level is like thinking global warming is a hoax because we once had a cold day in July.
The thing that Sanders supporters are having a very hard time accepting is that more Democrats genuinely prefer Clinton. It's not corporations, it's not Wall Street, it's not the party elites, it's the people -- rank-and-file voters. They like Clinton better, plain and simple, fair and square. It's democracy in action, and the people are democratically choosing Hillary. The media isn't lying to anybody about this (if anything, they are being too generous to Sanders because they don't want the horse race to end this early). In fact, the people who are being dishonest are the people who made the above graphic without giving any accompanying analysis.
Look, Sanders could still be the nominee (betting markets have him around 6%). Hillary could get charged with a felony, she could have a stroke, she could have a religious epiphany and endorse Ted Cruz. There are countless things that could happen that allow Sanders to win. But barring one of these wild, unforeseen game-changers, he is going to lose to Hillary. His supporters don't have to like it, but it would be nice if they weren't in mindless denial about it.
Prediction no. 2: Trump Does Not Secure a Majority of the Delegates, the Republican Nomination is Decided by a Brokered Convention and the Candidate Is... Donald J. Trump!
There is a decent chance Trump wins the nomination outright, but there is an equally decent chance he doesn't. It's about a coin flip. If he doesn't get a majority of the delegates, and neither does any other candidate (and nobody else is close right now), then chaos will ensue, and the Republicans will have to somehow pick somebody at their convention in July. Although several names have been bandied about -- Ted Cruz and John Kasich, obviously, but also Paul Ryan -- I bet, if it comes down to it, they will pick Trump anyway. Why? They aren't actually willing to go all in against him. The #nevertrump movement is a total bluff, and Trump knows this, and he has repeatedly called it.
If Republicans really wanted to spot Trump, they could, easily. All they have to do is announce that under no circumstances will they vote for Trump in the general election. They could even run a third-party, write-in candidate against him: Paul Ryan on the True Conservative ticket or something like that. This would absolutely stop Trump. It would also gift wrap the election for Hillary, but it would stop Trump. And for as much as Republicans like to talk about purity and integrity and honor, they would rather stand behind a crass, xenophobic, racist liar than have four more years of *shudder* a Democrat (with a few exceptions). The Republicans want Trump to go away, but they don't want him to take his supporters with him. Trump knows this and is like, hahaha... fuck you guys.
I mean, here's how I think it would go down at a brokered convention.
Republican Elite: I say we nominate John Kasich.
Trump: That would be a 'uge mistake. If you do that, I'm going to tell my minions not to vote for him. In fact, I might even run as an independent. I'll be the best independent candidate God ever created.
Republican Elite: Fine, let's nominate Donald Trump instead.
Ted Cruz [out of the side of his mouth]: I say we nominate Ted Cruz.
Trump: Shut up, Lying Ted! Nobody likes you, anyway!
That sounds about right, doesn't it?
Alright, until next time...
No comments:
Post a Comment