A few hours after I put up my last post, I learned RBG died. It was pretty crushing for me, as it was for many people. Aside from the loss of a civil rights icon, much like John Lewis’ passing early this year, it portends a possibly substantial swing in the ideological makeup of the Supreme Court. It also sets up what’s sure to be an excruciating confirmation fight in the already highly contentious weeks before the election. It will be excruciating, in large part, because my side is almost certainly going to lose. In all honesty, I haven’t really been following it because I already know – I already knew as soon as the news broke – exactly what would happen. A Trump appointed judge, probably this Barrett woman, is going to be confirmed and seated. There just isn’t enough, if any, resistance among Republican senators to stop it. The only thing the Democrats can possibly do is cry hypocrisy, which they should do, but nobody in a position to do anything cares about such cries. Hypocrisy is not the political liability we wish it was. A lot of voters, I suspect, even prefer a hypocrite, provided they are hypocritical in their favor.
Democrats could also threaten to “pack the courts,” but in order for that to happen they would need to win the presidency and a majority in the Senate (and hold the house). Then they would need to get everybody onboard to abolish the filibuster, and then get everybody onboard to change the number of Supreme Court justices. That’s a lot of conditions. I mean, it’s not an impossibility, but it’s also not really much of a deterrent for Republicans like Mitt Romney in the here and now.
It is something I would absolutely do, however, if I was Joe Biden and I had the chance. The rules surrounding the Supreme Court have needed to be updated for a long time. Even among good faith actors (which out leaders most certainly are not), it’s weird and arbitrary to have vacancies determined by the whims of health of octogenarians. Also, nine is too small a number. It concentrates too much power and doesn’t allow for enough diversity and variance of opinion. If I were in charge I would do something like: 15 justices, 15-year terms. This way one justice is replaced every year on a fixed schedule, and every president gets four selections per term, and I would make it so that they could only be blocked by a supermajority in the Senate. No games; no procedural shenanigans. No multigenerational fixtures; no minority rule. If you win a few elections, you get the court majority. That's how it should go.
But something like this is obviously not going to be in effect before November, and that's worrisome because it's possible the Supreme Court will have to rule on a disputed election, and we all know in which way they will be leaning from the get-go. There's also a possibility Trump loses the election and just refuses to leave. (Bill Maher has been banging this drum for years.) I tend to think this won't happen, but I definitely don't feel good about it. If, knock on wood, he loses decisively -- like Biden carries all the "Blue Wall" states by a comfortable margin plus any of Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio, I think he'll put on a show and cry foul, and then come up with a bullshit reason why it's actually better for him to leave, anyway, and then he'll start his own cable channel, telling his lies and conspiracy theories (and outright gibberish) to the 30% of the country that eat that shit up.
But, I could be wrong, and if he stays then I think there are two things to do. First, say to Republicans "come get your boy." I'm more optimistic about this working than most people I've heard talk about it. I don't think that most Reps want the US to become a failed state over Trump. (What good is a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court if the government doesn't even function?) I don't think they even like him, or his presidency, very much. They know how dangerous he is. They know he's full of shit. They just want to be in charge, so they're willing to put up with it. But straight-up denying an election result is a bridge too far, I suspect, for all but the most hard-core Trumpists.
But, I could be wrong, and if I am, then you go to Plan B: Biden just never concedes. If Trump loses but Republicans in Congress (and on the Supreme Court), find some sort of way to claim he actually won, by not counting certain ballots, or by changing the law in swing states to appoint Trump-loyalist electors, or by doing something I haven't even thought of yet, then you start a movement in which every Democratic politician and voter refuses to accept it. We all treat Biden as if he is the president, and he acts like the president. In effect, we start a parallel government of the United States of America, and claim, rightfully, that ours is the real one.
This sounds absurd, and it is, but what the fuck else are we supposed to do? And it could work, if you think about it. If major Democratic-run states -- California, New York, Washington, etc. -- don't accept a government as legitimate and just don't abide by their laws, how can they be forced to do so? In theory, the military could be deposed to hold these places by force, but would our military turn against its own people to fight for an unpopular wannabe dictator who's trying to stay in power after losing a democratic election? I don't think so. I mean, this would lead to a civil war -- not a contentious political battle that we half-heartedly follow on cable news while football is on commercial, but a literal, blood in the streets, civil war.
And on that cheery note...
Until next time...
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