So, as it turns out nobody really knows anything about the future. It's like a twist on the old saying: Some people can get it right a lot of the time; a lot of people can get it right some of the time; shit happens.
I've been doing a lot of thinking the past few days, and now I'm going to write as much of as I can in the next hour or so.
Elon's Twitter
I've been spending a lot of time on Twitter since Tuesday, following the election results. I didn't think things would change much when Elon took over, but I wasn't really basing that on much other than his own boiler-plate vision statement. Now some people -- seemingly legitimate sources (Pwnallthethings sounds legit, right?) -- think the site could actually implode over the next few weeks. Apparently, the main issue is that Musk needs cash quickly to start paying off the interest on his massive loans.
That's why he's laying off so much staff, and why he rolled out the $8 check mark, which was ridiculous and hilarious, giving us gems like...
Elon is such a weird dude, and he's fucking my shit up because he's making it not cool to drive a Tesla anymore. I just bought that thing. Can I at least get a year of social cachet out of it?
But he actually might be on to something about voting republican. Anybody who tweets this should not be president.
The House
In my last post I jumped the gun a bit by saying that the Republicans had already effectively taken the House. It ended up being a lot tighter than I thought, and there is still a miracle shot the Democrats could hold on, but major networks are calling it for the Reps now. The final margin is TBD, but it will be much smaller than most people were anticipating and than what historically happens during midterms. Ironically, New York -- blue ass New York -- did the Dems in. They fucked up the redistricting, and then they lost a bunch of winnable races.
Well, the good news is that House terms are only two years, and a majority in the House isn't needed to do a bunch of things, like, most notably, confirming judges. Of the two chambers, you'd rather have the Senate.
Speaking of which...
The Senate
Not only did the Dems retain the Senate, but they have a very good chance (I'd say about 75%) to add a seat, with the Warnock-Walker runoff next month. Ted Cruz is going to tour with Walker, which sounds good to me, being that of the candidates he stumped for mentioned in this article only one of them (JD Vance), actually won. The others (Yesli Vega, Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Karoline Leavitt) all lost. It's, like, if your record is currently 1-4, and you honestly want your guy to win, wouldn't you be inclined to just sit it out?
(Do yourself a favor and watch this video for 15 seconds starting at 1:10. Cruz nodding along like a dipshit is my favorite part.)
Other Races
Abortion rights and anti-election-deniers are the big winners this election (and in my heart). All the major bills protecting abortion access passed, and almost all the election deniers outside of deep red states lost, including, most importantly, the ones running for positions that would give them control of future elections. That's huge. Also, the Dems won a bunch of governors races. The big one is Kari Lake versus Katie Hobbs in Arizona. I cited Lake as a loser above, but that race hasn't been called yet. Lake is one of those "rising star" Republicans, who's mostly awful in every way, so it will be glorious if she loses (probably tomorrow).
Democrats
I can be pretty critical of Dems on this blog sometimes. I stand by what I say, but maybe sometimes I overstate it a bit. I certainly was too pessimistic coming into this election. The D brand might not be as off-putting (outside of super red areas) as I thought it was two weeks ago. I do think they need to do a better job of building a broad coalition, and results in certain places (ahem... Florida) demonstrate that.
I've learned I have a very Obama-ian view of what the Democratic party should be. I didn't really appreciate this while he was president. But listening to him speak recently and listening to podcasts about him, I find myself in lock step with what he says the messaging and policy should be. I guess a lot of it goes back to a guy named Bayard Rustin. The key is patronage over principle. Do things that are popular and work for the people, not things that make you feel good and pure.
Republicans
What a shit show. I worry that the D brand turns off too many swing voters, but I know that the R brand does. In discussions about why the red wave never materialized, you might have heard the phrase "candidate quality" used a lot, but that's a euphemism for "don't run a bunch of weirdos and nut jobs". I mean, just look at some of these people.
- Dr. Oz never even lived in Pennsylvania, and he released an add trying to appeal to the common man by talking about how expensive crudité is, while shopping at the store "Wegners" without using a basket or shopping cart.
- Yesli Vega suggested she believes that a woman can't get pregnant through rape, and then denied that she ever said it, even though it's on tape.
- Blake Masters released a random video of himself firing a "James Bond" gun while talking up the virtues of a silencer, because, you know, American Psycho is totally the vibe that appeals to suburban soccer moms. Who doesn't want a senator you could envision as an incel school shooter? Or as somebody said on Twitter:
- Then there's Joe Kent who decided it was a good move to denigrate one of the only things people on the left and right love equally: professional sports. He lost a House race in Washington (my home state making me proud!) he was heavily favored to win.
- Lastly, this guy (name omitted, so as to not given him any recognition), who didn't run for anything, but pretty actually sums up the vibe of a lot of Republican campaigns. I feel pretty confident that dudes like this do more than their fair share to "manufacture" single women.
Until next time...
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