I started this post this morning, and this is what I wrote.
Everyday I read a report from somebody supposedly in the know that Biden is going to drop out of the race, and then everyday he doesn't do it. Then there is an accompanying report about how he's hunkered down, "defiant," and mad that everybody wants him to withdraw. So, who knows what's going to happen? This is a thing we see all the time in sports. Successful athletes past their primes are almost always the last ones to acknowledge they cannot do the things they used to be able to do, and they never will be able to do those things again. Dan Marino didn't willingly retire. He was cut by the Dolphins -- a franchise he was the face of for nearly two decades -- after a 55-point playoff loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars ("The Worst NFL Farewell Game"). This is what Dems are trying to avoid with Biden now. It's nothing personal -- we get old, and we can't hack it. That's how it goes. It's not ageist because it's true, and it will happen to all us,* so we all have license to say it.
*Or it won't, which is much worse, if you think about it.
Actually, it's even worse than my sports analogy implies, because in sports sometimes an older athlete does defy the doubters. The Patriots gave up on Tom Brady, and he led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory the next season. Tiger Woods had not won a major since 2008 and looked properly cooked when he somehow claimed the Green Jacket at the 2019 Masters. But these accomplishments didn't require buy-ins from the general public. Only a small number of people needed to believe in Brady and Woods for them to rise back to the top. In Biden's case, it's very different. It doesn't matter how many people in his inner circle believe he's still mentally fit and capable. If voters don't buy it -- which they don't, understandably so, given that in his public appearances, Biden mostly speaks in a raspy whisper and struggles to articulate cogent thoughts -- then he's not fit to do the job of getting reelected. It doesn't matter how much heart Biden has, or even if, behind closed doors he's still super sharp. What matters is that he presents as a frail, addled old man, and he is not capable of changing this perception. If he were, he would have done it already. His poll numbers are abysmal and only getting worse, and while this isn't a guarantee that he will lose, if he stays in the race, or that a replacement will fare any better, if he doesn't, it does mean, as best we can tell, a new candidate would give Dems a better chance.
Now, we are back in real-time, Biden, has in fact withdrawn, and the big question is: What comes next? Who comes next? Kamala? She's the obvious choice, and Biden endorses her, so probably. She's not the most popular kid in class, but there's no perfect candidate. Barack has already served his two terms, and Michelle hasn't shown any interest in running. So, I'm fine with Kamala. I can make a decent case for her winning, and I don't think it's just wishful thinking. She's not so far to the left that she's going to scare away moderates (the whole "Kamala's a cop" meme might actually help her on the whole), but she also can appeal, or at least be acceptable, to progressives, particularly young progressives, who like the idea of electing a woman of color to the most powerful position in the world. And, of course, there won't be any concerns that she's too old. Here's the Kamala coalition: Blue No Matter Who Democrats; centrists and moderates, even those who usually lean right, who can't stomach Trump; very lefty progressives who don't love Dems, but also don't want to see another old white man elected president. That's a coalition that could carry the day in November. It might not, but it could.
Alright, that's all I have on this topic for now. Until next time...
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