The past three days, I've fluctuated wildly between having too much to say about Tuesday's election and having nothing to say about it at all. When something unexpected like this happens, everybody goes searching for reasons why -- was it whitelash? was it sexism? was it the uprising of an economically oppressed class? was it a repudiation of the Clintons? of politics as usual? I think it is natural to ask these questions and possibly even helpful. If you can properly diagnose what went wrong, you will be better able to prevent it in the future. But only to a point. Because there is one aspect of Tuesday's election that few people are talking about: bad luck.
I keep hearing about how everybody got the election wrong. But did we actually get it wrong, or did something unlikely just happen? (Let's not forget, Hillary won popular vote! We weren't wrong that more Americans preferred her to Trump.) Sometimes the underdog wins; that doesn't mean they shouldn't have been the underdog. There is an element of randomness to elections -- particularly presidential elections with the winner-take-all by state format. Try as we might, we simply cannot predict with complete accuracy who will turn out for whom where on a given day in November. As far as the public is concerned it is a random event. It is left in large part to chance. Is it meaningful that Hillary narrowly lost Florida, but overperformed in Texas and Arizona? That she won Colorado and Nevada, but lost the Midwest? Does this tell us anything going forward, or did things just break that way this election? Before you think it must be the former, that there must be a deep lesson we all can learn, remember this: In 2008 and 2012 the big takeaway was that the only way Republicans could compete nationally is if they appeal to Latinos. How morbidly laughable does that seem now?
A lot has been written about what liberals should do now. How can we win again? The big thing I keep hearing is that we need leaders who will appeal to the neglected working class of rural America, to those who have been legitimately hurt by automation and free trade. And I think we do need to do this, but I think we need to do this because helping the working class is the right thing to do, because it is in line with our values, not because we think it's the missing piece to winning the next election. Because nobody really knows what or who will win the next election. Nobody knows what the state of the electorate will be four years from now or even two years from now.
The real message -- or at least a real message -- we should take away from this election is that the future is more uncertain and random than our initial instincts lead us to believe.* What I say to liberal leaders looking for answers is this: Do what you think is right. Start a movement you believe in. Don't try to play the game, because you don't understand the rules of the game -- nobody does; they are constantly changing. By the time we get the rules figure out for 2016, it's 2018 and we are on to something new. So don't think an old, Jewish socialist is unelectable; don't think endorsing Black Lives Matter will alienate too many white people; don't think you have to bend over backwards to appear pro business or tough on crime or hawkish. Stand up for what you believe in. Do what's in your heart. Be authentic. Try to start something cool. The votes will follow. Or they won't. We just don't know. We never know.
Until next time...
*Another message we learned, or rather one we had reconfirmed is that America is still a very racist nation. We simply haven't yet overcome our legacy of slavery. When people like Paul Ryan acknowledge the president-elect is racist, but support him anyway because he personally isn't the member of a targeted group, and he needs somebody to sign his stupid budget -- that's white privilege. When black and brown people in the inner-city are beset by economic hardship, our response is "it's your own fault; you need to have better families; you need to take personal responsibility for your own lives, and clean up your own communities; you need to do life better." When rural white people are beset by economic hardship, our response is "brown people are taking our jobs! the system is rigged! burn the whole thing down!" -- that's white supremacy.
I keep hearing about how everybody got the election wrong. But did we actually get it wrong, or did something unlikely just happen? (Let's not forget, Hillary won popular vote! We weren't wrong that more Americans preferred her to Trump.) Sometimes the underdog wins; that doesn't mean they shouldn't have been the underdog. There is an element of randomness to elections -- particularly presidential elections with the winner-take-all by state format. Try as we might, we simply cannot predict with complete accuracy who will turn out for whom where on a given day in November. As far as the public is concerned it is a random event. It is left in large part to chance. Is it meaningful that Hillary narrowly lost Florida, but overperformed in Texas and Arizona? That she won Colorado and Nevada, but lost the Midwest? Does this tell us anything going forward, or did things just break that way this election? Before you think it must be the former, that there must be a deep lesson we all can learn, remember this: In 2008 and 2012 the big takeaway was that the only way Republicans could compete nationally is if they appeal to Latinos. How morbidly laughable does that seem now?
A lot has been written about what liberals should do now. How can we win again? The big thing I keep hearing is that we need leaders who will appeal to the neglected working class of rural America, to those who have been legitimately hurt by automation and free trade. And I think we do need to do this, but I think we need to do this because helping the working class is the right thing to do, because it is in line with our values, not because we think it's the missing piece to winning the next election. Because nobody really knows what or who will win the next election. Nobody knows what the state of the electorate will be four years from now or even two years from now.
The real message -- or at least a real message -- we should take away from this election is that the future is more uncertain and random than our initial instincts lead us to believe.* What I say to liberal leaders looking for answers is this: Do what you think is right. Start a movement you believe in. Don't try to play the game, because you don't understand the rules of the game -- nobody does; they are constantly changing. By the time we get the rules figure out for 2016, it's 2018 and we are on to something new. So don't think an old, Jewish socialist is unelectable; don't think endorsing Black Lives Matter will alienate too many white people; don't think you have to bend over backwards to appear pro business or tough on crime or hawkish. Stand up for what you believe in. Do what's in your heart. Be authentic. Try to start something cool. The votes will follow. Or they won't. We just don't know. We never know.
Until next time...
*Another message we learned, or rather one we had reconfirmed is that America is still a very racist nation. We simply haven't yet overcome our legacy of slavery. When people like Paul Ryan acknowledge the president-elect is racist, but support him anyway because he personally isn't the member of a targeted group, and he needs somebody to sign his stupid budget -- that's white privilege. When black and brown people in the inner-city are beset by economic hardship, our response is "it's your own fault; you need to have better families; you need to take personal responsibility for your own lives, and clean up your own communities; you need to do life better." When rural white people are beset by economic hardship, our response is "brown people are taking our jobs! the system is rigged! burn the whole thing down!" -- that's white supremacy.
I feel like I did after 9/11--confused, mortified, unsure how we proceed, and in utter disbelief anybody would think this is a good way to make a statement and push back. Most of the country is going to be looking over our shoulders for the next 4yrs worried about what disaster may be headed our way. But most of us also survived 9/11 and emerged more determined to protect our way of life from those who use hate, fear, and violence to motivate followers and advance their agendas. Every generation of American has had a moment where they had to decide who we are as a country and what we stand for and so far we've always managed to progress. I have faith our generation will do the same.
ReplyDelete